November 4, 2008
So, here's today's special edition. Not entirely sure what I'll do with it, but I figure I'll provide at least a little commentary. If the RSS feed is working properly it should change the update time whenever I make a change.
And this is it, the final day (hopefully) of the election season. That's been going on since Obama declared his candidacy in February of 2007. I've made no secret of who I'm voting for, and anyone who knows me pretty much already knows why. (Though I will say that the last couple months have pushed me far enough from libertarianism that I wouldn't feel right using the term to describe myself. "Liberal" it is.)
This post should become active at midnight, meaning there are six hours until the polls open in Virginia. Note to self when updating in the morning: Check the Fairfax County web site and see if there are any problems anticipated at my voting location.
Edit, 6:15 AM: Looks like the county web site won't be useful in letting me know if there are lines and/or other delays. A friend just posted to Facebook that he's waiting in line in Arlington County as of the opening of the polls (6:00 AM), so I'll find out in about 90 minutes whether there'll be any delays here.
Edit, 6:44 AM: As part of my "Fake Virginia vs. Real Virginia" post from last week, I'm also going to be checking out the combined returns from VA + WV... in other words, if West Virginia hadn't seceded from Virginia. "Original Virginia" has a population of 9.4 million, making it the 10th most-populous state. It would have 13 congresspeople, and 15 electoral votes. This means that, overall, the conjoined state would lose one representative and (as it stands pre-election) two Democratic senators. Bush won the last two presidential elections in both states and McCain is expected to win this time in WV. Obama is currently forecast to win VA.
Edit, 8:39 AM: Got to my polling place at 7:29 and was out the door at 8:14. Not bad considering they were expecting record turnout, and that the former governor (now mayor of Richmond) was worried about lines being too long for people. In addition to the electronic machines, they do have Scantron-type paper ballots for people who want to kick it old-school. I'd say they handled the influx rather well.
Edit, 9:38 AM: From Fox News: Polls have already closed in two New Hampshire towns, because everybody's already voted. So far, Obama's up.
Edit, 9:52 AM: Found via Howard, from NBC's site. Keith Olbermann is the host of MSNBC's show Countdown, and over the last several months has devolved into the left's version of Bill O'Reilly. Actually, that's not quite true. O'Reilly is more paranoid, and Olbermann has more spittle-flying rages. So it's kind of a wash.
(Here's the part where it kinda-sorta has to do with the election.)
Starting in (IIRC) 2006, Olbermann would replace the final story on his show with a "Special Comment" from time to time. Basically something that the administration had done to really piss him off, and he wanted to do a rant/open letter to Bush about. The first few were good. They got old fast. And lately he's been doing "Campaign Comments" every day, to avoid diluting the "Special Comment" concept, or somesuch.
Honestly, I'm almost ready to walk the dog during Countodwn and start watching Rachel Maddow's show in its entirety instead. He's gotten that annoying to me, and I've become more of a lefty since Bush has been in office.
Anyway, On Saturday Night Live last weekend they had McCain on, and the host Ben Affleck did a not-as-exaggerated-as-one-would-hope parody of Olbermann's comments. Enjoy:
I promise, the next update will be at least slightly relevant to what's going on today.
Edit, 12:21 PM: I am rather disappointed in the lack of good new LOLs on Pundit Kitchen.
Edit, 1:35 PM: Some places, like Ben & Jerry's, give you free stuff if you show your "I Voted" sticker. Chipotle is not one of those places. Burrito was good though.
Edit, 2:57 PM: In glancing at both CNN and Fox News, I'm seeing word of mistakes (polling stations getting the wrong rosters), long lines and occasional ballot shortages. Nothing that looks orchestrated, though I'm sure that accident or no some people had to leave and go to work before they had a chance to vote. Here in NoVA, where people tend to live several miles from their jobs, lines were long when polls opened at 6, probably experienced a spike around noon, and will most likely suck again after 5:00. Which may be a problem, as the polls close at 7:00.
Edit, 3:12 PM: Starbucks gives out free coffee if you vote. BRB.
Edit, 6:14 PM: The lines I was anticipating weren't there. If you haven't voted yet and you're in my area, now would be a good time. Especially with the polls closing in 45 minutes.
Edit, 9:05 PM: Was at a friend's house, watching the returns come in. Didn't see any real difference in coverage between ABC and NBC, except NBC spent more time on senate elections. They also called Pennsylvania a few minutes later than ABC did. Current electoral guesstimate on NBC is Obama 175-76.
Edit, 9:10 PM: Fox has given New Mexico to Obama, nothing yet from NBC. CNN's site has the Dems grabbing 52 seats so far, though I think that includes the two "independents".
Edit, 9:14 PM: CNN.com is being far more conservative than the networks. WV, NM, and KS haven't been called yet. Some surprises for me are Wisconsin going for Obama, though Bachman may have helped him there. Word from MSNBC is that Fairfax and Arlington counties here in VA haven't really come in yet. That means the Virginia count may not be as bad as I thought earlier.
Edit, 9:22 PM: I was apparently wrong in remembering MN as a red state. They just said that Obama hasn't won any red states yet.
Check that, they just gave him Ohio, which is a key red state. 195-76.
Edit. 9:29 PM: Fox has Obama at 200-81. I need to check their map to see where they're getting the extra 10 votes from.
Edit, 9:31 PM: FL: Obama up by 100,000. IN: McCain by about 50,000. VA: McCain by about 15,000. NC: Obama by about 80,000. All too close for Fox News, which I'm watching now, to call. They also pointed out that McCain's campaign is "objecting" to their and the other networks, and the AP calling Pennsylvania already (about 1/4 of the votes are in) and Fox basically called him a whiny bitch.
Edit, 9:36 PM: NBC has caught up to Fox; they're at 200-85 now.
Edit, 9:37 PM: Olbermann on MSNBC just made a good point. Obama's (unofficially) at 200. CA is 55; HI is 4, WA is 11. That adds up to... 270. So, unofficially, game over.
Edit, 9:41 PM: The Dems now have 50 senate seats without the independents. As far as I know, no Democratic senate seats or electoral states have gone McCain's way so far.
Edit, 9:45 PM: Online: ABC has gone out on a limb and called Texas for McCain, putting the current score at 200-124. CBS News is holding back one of Maine's electoral votes (they split their votes, as does Nebraska). CNN's still pussyfooting around with NM, LA and AR.
Edit, 9:50 PM: Wow, Virginia's county map is whacked. The Democratic senate candidate won just about every candidate but Obama only leads in about 10 counties (though that includes NoVA, so he's still close in overall popular vote).
Edit, 10:01 PM: Utah's been given to McCain under the heading of "No Crap"; Iowa has flipped over to blue. Virginia is now showing a small Obama lead, with the more metropolitan counties (Fairfax, Arlington, etc.) being the ones that aren't done counting yet.
I planned on talking about differing coverage here, but this whole thing is just so interminably boring. NBC seems to keep kicking out to the Obama party in Chicago. MSNBC keeps talking about McCain's screw-ups -- not a surprise given their people.
Edit, 10:08 PM: Oh yeah. Heard that Ted "Series of Tubes, Bridge To Nowhere, Build Me a House" Stevens (R-AK) may not need to worry about being expelled from the Senate for his felony conviction; he may get voted out tonight. And Chris Matthews (D-MSNBC) just announced that every Republican in New England has lost their seats.
Edit, 10:18 PM: All the online sources effectively have 207-135. CBS is still holding back a Maine EV; CNN is still being stingy with Texas. Other than that they're all the same. Do these "proprietary" calculation methods involve having interns watch TV so they can do what everyone else does?
Edit, 10:20 PM: Adding the BBC's web site, they also have the 207-135 margin. They say they're using the AP's results, so them matching everyone else is no big surprise. They have a decent write-up of the networks' coverage methods in the broad strokes.
Edit, 10:23 PM: With the networks all kicking over to local coverage, I've put Fox News on opposite MSNBC. On the downside, I'm watching Fox News. On the upside, with these two channels on, I'm guaranteed to see a head explode by the end of the night. Maryland passed an initiative to allow early voting. CA is still voting, so there's no information yet on Proposition 8. (No is good, in this case.)
Edit, 10:27 PM: Obama's pulling away in Virginia (go, Potomac!) but in "Old Virginia" McCain would have a lead of about 10,000 votes.
Edit, 10:35 PM: Watching Fox News, they're not officially calling it, but their guy is pointing out Obama has a 150,000 or so vote lead, with the remaining precincts in heavily Democratic areas. So it's all but a sure thing. So since I'm as unofficial as it gets, I'm going to add FL's 27 EVs to Obama, giving him 234-138 (ABC and CBS have given Nebraska to McCain, NBC and CNN haven't).
Edit, 10:43 PM: Chuck Todd at MSNBC considers Prince William County to be "Real Virginia" to use Joe McCain's term, although I added it to Potomac. Given the spread of the DC Metro area, I'd say I'm closer to being accurate than he is.
Edit, 10:47 PM: Credit where due: Fox News, while its rightward bent is noticeable, is mostly sticking to straight analysis, with fewer of what I'd consider puff pieces compared to MSNBC. Olbermann and Matthews are wearing their biases on their sleeves a bit more. You have no idea how amazed I was to see Karl Rove having a rational discussion about potential Obama policy choices.
Edit, 10:55 PM: Fox News seems to have given Virginia to Obama. Of course, after I praise them for not doing puff pieces, they have some congressman beating the same drum about earmarks. Earmarks are a fraction of a percent of the overall budget. They're irrelevant unless you want to wander so far into the weeds that you don't accomplish anything. Which is what Congressional Republicans may have in mind.
Currently on FN: Obama 220-141. Adding Florida it's 247-141. California isn't closed yet; they have 55 EVs, so that's 302 right there. As I said before, that's your ballgame.
Edit, 11:00 PM: With the close of polls in California, Fox News has moved Obama to 275 electoral votes, making him the president-elect. Obviously the official counts must come in, but as conservative as people tend to be after the 2000 debacle I'd say you can bank on this.
Using CNN's calculator and the school of pulling numbers out of thin air, I'm projecting Obama to pick up NV, AZ, CO, MO, FL, NC and 1 EV in NE. Giving McCain MT, SD, IN, AK and 4 from NE, my final total is 375-163.
Now, Arizona may be wishful thinking, along with Missouri. North Carolina is still iffy. But I'd say I'm probably close.
Edit, 11:08 PM: Before I go to bed: In "Old Virginia" we have popular vote totals of 1,768,586 for McCain and 1,765,215 for Obama. We're still missing some votes from "Potomac" and about a quarter of West Virginia. So Obama may win both of my made-up states before the night is over :)
Still nothing on Florida, but I need sleep. Don't care too much about McCain's concession speech or Obama's acceptance speech. And save your Blazing Saddles references for 1/20/09... I'll make them with you :) I leave you with this picture, stolen without remorse from Pundit Kitchen:
Edit, 11/5/08 6:41 AM: Checking this morning I was right about Nevada, Colorado and Florida. I got Arizona wrong (McCain pulled farther ahead after I went to bed; I assumed the cities still had to report and would make things closer) and was wrong about the Nebraska split. Missouri and North Carolina are still too close to call, making Obama's network-unofficial tally 349-163. Oddly, CNN and ABC still have Indiana listed as too close while Fox, NBC, CBS and the AP have assigned to to Obama. Maybe there's an auto-recount? It is mighty close by the look of things.
Edit, 11/5/08 7:09 AM: Quick one, before I get ready to go to work. The Dems, if you include the independents, have 56 Senate seats with 4 still up in the air: Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota and Georgia. I doubt they'll win all four. Maybe 3/4 with Georgia staying Republican. And Lieberman will probably caucus with the 'Pubs anyway. So the filibuster-proof majority of 60 the Dems would have liked is out the window, but finding one or two Republicans to go along will be easier than finding 10 was.
Of course, this assumes that, with the House, Senate and White House all under Democratic control for the first time since 1992-94 the Democrats actually stop going along with every damn thing the Republicans ask for/demand.
Edit, 11/5/08 12:52 PM: CNN has finished equivocating; they've given Indiana to Obama. ABC is still holding out. That brings up the totals to 349-163 if all of Nebraska goes for McCain. 26 EVs in North Carolina and Missouri are still undecided; they're both sitting on 50-49 majorities (Obama in NC, McCain in MO) and I assume they're in auto-recounts right now. Indiana was the same (50-49) but it slid into the D column, so that's all I can think of.
Just watched Obama's speech on Youtube. Dude knows how give a speech.
Edit, 11/6/08 9:17 AM: Nice to have an election where the stragglers don't matter, isn't it? I just read on a message board that Missouri hasn't officially been called yet because there are more provisional ballots to be sorted through (which can take up to 10 days, I think) than the current margin of victory for McCain. But the provisionals would have to go something like 85-15 Obama's way for him to win, and then there'd be a recount due to the closeness of the vote. But winning that many seems unlikely so I'm going to add to CBS News's count and make it Obama 349-174. You heard it here first, like it matters.
I'm guessing that with a similar margin, North Carolina's in the same boat. My question is: Why did I have to find this out on a message board instead of, say, from the news?
Edit, 11/6/08 4:30 PM: Before I leave work (hockey game to go to), I see that NBC has assigned all states now, with MO going to McCain and NC to Obama. Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS and the AP all have one or the other as undecided. So, my final tally, unless something changes, is 364-173. Which is a far wider margin than I predicted. And with that, I think I can safely stop updating this page.
